Well-Pitched Delivery!

17 Feb,2020

 

By Indrani Sen

 

As per the Pitch Madison Advertising Report, in 2020 adspends in India are predicted to grow by 10.4%, while GroupM’s This Year Next Year predicts that in 2020 the same will grow by 10.9%. This rate of growth is the only aspect on which both the reports have shown some similarity.

Even while commenting on the growth rate, GroupM sounded buoyant by comparing it with the 5.1% growth rate of global ad spends in 2020 and ignoring the Indian ground realities while Madison described the growth rate as “muted” expecting the economy to bounce back only in the second half of 2020.

PMAR 2020 is more firmly rooted in the Indian media and market scenario and has presented an excellent analysis of the ups and downs faced by the traditional media industry in 2019 and its consequences. In his presentation, Sam Balsara made an interesting observation by dividing 2019 in two halves and showing how AdEx grew very well during the first half riding on IPL, World Cup and Lok Sabha Elections, but collapsed during the second half due to economic slowdown. Balsara also showed how the traditional media suffered heavily during the second half of 2019, when compared to second half of 2018, there was a de-growth in second half of 2019.

Balsara presented  charts showing that the Digital media grew by 32% in 2019 and projected a growth rate of 28.4% in 2020 as against traditional media which grew by 6% in 2019 and is expected to grow by 5.1% in 2020.

He commented in his presentation that: “We also expect a wide variation of growth rates across mediums ranging from a low of 2% for Press, 5% for Radio, 6% for Outdoor, 7% for TV, to 20% for Cinema and 28% for Digital.” In 2020 TV will continue to enjoy the largest share of the advertising pie at 36% and Print may be demoted to number 3 with Digital securing a march over it. As of now, PMAR predicts 26.6% share for Digital and 27.4% share for Print in 2020. PMAR and TYNY also projects different estimates for the size of the traditional media, with TYNY estimating a value of TV AdEx almost 10000 crore higher than the value estimated by PMAR.

The growth rates for Digital media estimated by TYNY is 28% in 2019 and 26% in 2020. Both the reports predict Digital as the main growth driver of Indian Adex in 2020, but there is again a significant differences between the estimated sizes of Digital AdEx.

GroupM has revised their estimate for total AdEx upwards for both 2018 and 2019 while Madison revised their estimate for total AdEx downwards for 2019 due to economic slowdown and various headwinds faced by the traditional media industry. As a result of these revisions made by the two agencies, estimated sizes of Indian Ad Industry by TYNY are now 15000+ crore higher than the sizes estimated by PMAR, a difference which is not only difficult to reconcile, but also creates confusion in the market place.

By now, we have learned to live with different sizes of the Indian Ad Industry estimated by different agencies. PMAR estimates are most acceptable by the industry at large due to its ability to link the market realities with their statistics supported by analysis of trends in Ad Spends as well as in depth analysis of individual media. Balsara also adds an icing on his presentation every year through advice to advertisers which are considered to be extremely useful and this year he has excelled himself on that score.

 

Indrani Sen is a veteran advertising and media agency practitioner. She is now also an academician. Her views here are personal

 

 

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