2020 & Beyond

23 Apr,2019


GroupM’s newest publication, Opportunity and Hazard: 2020 and Beyond, authored by Rob Norman and Brian Wieser, offers perspectives on foundational technologies and issues we believe are most likely to impact consumer adoption of products and services: bandwidth, increasing machine ‘intelligence,’ application of identity, and what comes after the most successful consumer product in history – the smartphone. GroupM’s analysis considers the context of privacy, brand safety and the impact of “direct brands.”  The new publication is available for direct download from GroupM.com (https://www.groupm.com/news/groupm-opportunity-hazard-2020-and-beyond).


Here’s the end-note that that Rob Norman and Brian Wiser write: “It’s a cliché to say that the only constant is change, but we see no deceleration in high-impact, technologically driven advances.


The next decade will be dominated by advances in AI and the next wave of commercial and social disruption. In every sector the innovation cycle will speed up, and in all fields there will be greater scrutiny of the possibility of social harm — and hopefully an equal focus on social good.


More narrowly, in advertising, scrutiny of business models that depend on the monetization of data signals will increase, as will the penalties associated with enabling bad actors. The rewards for actions that make advertising more valuable will be significant. In the media world, existing trends will accelerate. Over-the-top delivery and consumption of video will grow, along with increased bandwidth at reducing prices. Clear winners and losers will emerge in the battle for paying subscribers. Per-user revenue strategies will vary from the flat world of Netflix to locating the 5 percent of all users responsible for 80 percent of revenue for many digital publishers.


Content producers will search for the economic balance between vertically integrating monetization and the sale of content to the highest bidders. Social platforms will increasingly seek out mixed monetization models, diversifying from advertising to services and commerce.


The New York Times, with its impressive 2.3 million digital-only subscribers, counts just a little less than 2 percent of its U.S. unique visitors as digital subscribers. That’s out of its approximate 100 million U.S. unique visitors, as recently measured by Comscore. (piano.io) The role of data will continue to change, and for advertisers firstparty data will be of the greatest value for understanding customers. They will use it to create audiences that will be found inside the walled gardens of the platforms, and that match with the context of publishers and the data they have on user behavior.


Matching privacy and relevance will be of great importance and value. In advertising, the “interruptive” model will persist, but delivery will be increasingly programmatic and addressable. Decisioning will be both automated and autonomous. Over time, the pursuit of mass reach via broadcast means will give way to in-target reach assembled one person, one household or one device at a time. Coupled with enough creativity and variation in messaging to address the varying needs and wants of the many customer cohorts of each and every brand, advertising has the opportunity to maximize efficiency, effectiveness and relevance.


In other words, advertising will become more valuable. “



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