Mind the TV AdEx Gap!

20 Feb,2018

 

By Indrani Sen

 

For two consecutive years, TYNY by GroupM and PMAO by Madison were released during the same week, giving the industry lot of food for thought and facts and figures to chew and digest. TYNY or ‘This Year Next Year’ closed the estimate for total AdEx 2017 at Rs 61,263 crore with a growth rate of 10% over 2016, while PMAO or ‘Pitch Madison Advertising Outlook’ showed a growth rate of 7.4% in 2017 over 2016 and estimated the total AdEx as Rs 53,138 crore.

After a year of stagnation and stunted growth in 2017, mostly due to the after effect of Demonetisation and Goods & Services Tax (GST),both the reports predict a better year in 2018 with a growth of total AdEx by 13% and 12% respectively.

According to both the reports, Digital is going to have the highest growth in AdEx in 2018, 30% according to TYNY and 25% according to PMAO. Both reports predict 13% growth in TV AdEx and 4% (TYNY) and 5% (PMAO)in Print AdEx. Both agree that the highest growth after Digital will be achieved by Cinema (20% TYNY & 14% PMAO) which has the smallest share of the advertising pie. Both have shown same percentile growth rates for OOH and Radio (15% TYNY & 10% PMAO).

The chart below shows that PMAO’s estimates for growth for all media, except TV and Print, are more conservative than TYNY.

 

 

 

In my analysis of the two reports last year (http://www.mxmindia.com/2017/02/what-is-the-real-size-of-indian-ad-industry/), I found a difference of around Rs 5000 crore between the two projections made by TYNY and PMAO for all media in 2017. The difference was mainly due to the disagreement between the projections for TVAdEx in the two reports with GroupM’s projection being almost Rs 6000 crorehigher than PMAO’s.

In the projections for 2018, the gap in the all media AdEx between the two reports has widened to almost Rs10,000 crore with TYNY predicting the total industry size as Rs 69,347 crore and PMAO predicting it as Rs 59,530 crore. As seen last year, most of this difference is due to the Rs 9,391cr difference in the projections of TV AdEx shown in the two reports.

 

 

 

Unless this widening gap in TV AdEx is reviewed by both the agencies and explained to the industry at large, it would become increasingly difficult for the A&M industry to assess the actual size of the TV AdEx. I think there must be a difference in the methodology followed by the two agencies for estimating TV AdEx which results in the different estimates.

On behalf of the A&M fraternity, I appeal to both GroupM and Madison for a clarification so that we have a better perspective and understanding about growth of Indian advertising by media over the years.

Indrani Sen is a veteran advertising professional and is now Adjunct Professor with the Symbiosis International University, Pune. The views here are her own

 

 

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