Social media to play key role in Kerala & Tamil Nadu elections: IAMAI

16 May,2016

By A Correspondent

 

The poll outcome in as many as 71 high impact assembly segments out of 140 constituencies in Kerala will likely be influenced by social media users, a report by IAMAI said. Ninety two percent of social media users in Tamil Nadu are following the election on social channels, with 28 per cent of the 234 constituencies likely to see netizens play a decisive role in determining the winner.

 

Taking the theme of “Impact of Social Media on Elections” a level deeper than General Elections, the Internet & Mobile Association of India (IAMAI) with the support of The Campaign 360, has released a report titled “Social Media Impact on the Kerala & Tamil Nadu Elections, 2016.” This report is a part of the series of assembly election reports, and follows the hugely successful social media impact report that IAMAI published in 2014 on the eve of the General Elections.

 

According to the report, there are 71 High Impact constituencies in Kerala, the results of which are likely to be influenced by social media users in the state. There are 4 medium impact and 65 low impact constituencies in the State. The report contends that 51 per cent or as many as 1 out of 2 constituencies, which have been classified as High Impact could determine the eventual winner in the State.

 

There are 66 High Impact constituencies in Tamil Nadu, the results of which are likely to be influenced by social media users in the state. There are 14 medium impact and 154 low impact constituencies in the State.  The report contends that 28% or more than 1 in 4 Constituencies, which have been classified as ‘High Impact’ could determine the eventual winner in the State.

 

Conducting a web survey of a representative sample of 250 social media users each in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, it was found that in Kerala, TV (53 per cent) and Print (48 per cent) still stand as the most trusted media sources for election related content, while 31 per cent rely on Social Media and only 9 per cent access Digital News. In Tamil Nadu, 32 per cent rely on Social Media and only 15 per cent access Digital News, while reliance on TV is 46 per cent and print is 40 per cent.

 

During the 10 day tracking period between 11-20 April, using social media “listening tools”, Corruption emerged as the topmost topic of discussion. Oommen Chandy, the incumbent Chief Minister was the most discussed leader in Kerala while BJP was the most discussed party. The LDF has minimal presence on Facebook and Twitter both from a Party and Leadership perspective. The incumbent UDF makes up for 1 in 3 mentions with a 9% negative sentiment. The Left on the other hand makes up for the least negative sentiment though its share of volumes are significantly lower than its vote share in the State.

 

In Tamil Nadu, the DMK alliance dominates the conversation on social media channels. However, the net sentiment is negative. The AIADMK has significantly lower presence but also very high negative conversations, with 1 in 3 conversations about the AIADMK on Social Media are negative. The same trend impacts all the other parties/alliances except the small PMK which has more positive than negative conversations.

 

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