Bull’s Eye for Ormax’s ‘First Day Box Office’ forecast tool

08 Jan,2014

By A Correspondent


Media insights firm Ormax Media has achieved 100% accuracy in its first-day box-office forecast of new Hindi films in December 2013, as per a communiqué. The proprietary forecast model FBO (First-Day Box Office) had forecast the opening day domestic box office collections of all the films released in December 2013 and the first week of January 2014.


FBO is a part of Ormax Media’s film awareness tracking product Ormax Cinematix, which has been used by various studios in the film industry since 2010 to track their marketing campaigns and take corrective action towards achieving a higher opening at the box office. The FBO Model was included in Ormax Cinematix from September 2012. It defines accuracy as ‘within 10% or within Rs 50 lakh of actual box-office collection’.


Shailesh Kapoor

Speaking on the achievement, Shailesh Kapoor, CEO – Ormax Media, said: “We have put in significant effort in making the FBO Model more accurate over the last six months. Ormax Cinematix now covers 29 markets, instead of 19 covered earlier. We have also created robust benchmarks for various extraneous factors that can affect the opening of a film and have incorporated them in the model, such as impact of festivals, holidays, cricket matches, cold wave and examinations. These efforts have borne fruit and we have got every single film right since the release of R… Rajkumar in the first week of December.”


The FBO forecast for Dhoom 3 was Rs. 32.5 crore, within 5% of the actual collections of Rs. 30.9 crore. Other significant forecasts in this period have been R… Rajkumar (FBO 8.3 cr, Actual 8.8 cr), Jackpot (FBO 1.0 cr, Actual 1.0 cr) and Sholay 3D (FBO 1.2 cr, Actual 1.25 cr).


Added Mr Kapoor: “Eight studios are annual subscribers to Ormax Cinematix and FBO, and many other films use the product for individual film releases. The industry has supported the product wholeheartedly for almost four years now. Their constant feedback has helped us make improvements in the product and the FBO Model, resulting in high accuracy levels. While no forecast model can guarantee 100% accuracy, we are confident of maintaining very high accuracy levels on FBO in the months to come.”

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