2012? Is it a repeat of 2009-10?

30 Mar,2012

Predicting Adspends has become more complex now than ever was. The economic outlook is something that one can never get the handle right, with most studies not agreeing on one number. But this is what makes it exciting to look and estimate the Adex growth in India. GroupM does a yeoman’s service of providing some startling numbers based on science than the gut, even though India tends to buck the trend away from global predictions.


Every client I speak to talks of prudent spending behind potential cuts, at least the intent is a tight squeeze. Cautious optimism mixed with nervous pessimism! The growth highs of 26% in 2006 and 22.5% in 2010 looks so recent yet the thinking is a bit soft now for 2012. Since October, the moment the Eurozone market failure triggered a downslide the thoughts are very much on these lines. But let’s also look at the growth drivers – every media is expected to grow in double digits with the exception of print and out of home. Every broadcaster and publisher is trying ways and means to cut down input costs while trying to extract the maximum. The first 4 months of this year will show the trend for the year and the challenges are aplenty for media, agencies and advertisers.


The world is expected to reach $522 billion, a 6.4% growth in Adspends – four regions will continue to grow in double digits: APAC (10.2%), LATAM (14.2%), Central & Eastern Europe (11.2%) based on GroupM forecasts. Digital will contribute to 22% of all measured ad investment in mature western markets and 12% in the faster-growing world. Compare this to a 30% growth predicted in India. Search and Social continue to grow in India, but in my opinion the digital growth will be fuelled by mobile and digital content. Performance Marketing is the need of the hour. The challenge in our country will be primarily on TV, which has overtaken Newspaper spends for the first time since 2011, what with increased content costs. Network channels will capitalize by using the same content on several channels to defray costs, but not everyone can attract eyeballs consistently. Accountability on short-term commitments will be the need of the hour.


Ravi Rao, Leader – South Asia, Mindshare

Post a Comment 

Comments are closed.

Today's Top Stories